Economic statistics

• Efficiency Growth in New Zealand Agriculture: A Review, The Economic Record, Vol. 48, No 2, pages 76-91.

• Recent Trends in New Zealand Agricultural Productivity, with Rod Forbes. This 20-page paper reports a time series analysis of agricultural productivity trends in NZ 1972-98. Tornqvist indexes of gross and net output, and intermediate inputs in combination with actual labour force and capital stock data are used to estimate total and factor productivity in the agricultural sector. In the period covered, total factor productivity increased by 4% per annum.

• Is there a measurable aggregate production function: examples from agriculture? This seven-page, unpublished paper is a reworked and updated version of the 1972 paper (Efficiency Growth in New Zealand Agriculture: a Review, Economic Record, 48(2), 76-91) in which elasticities of substitution between inputs in a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function are estimated. The measurement of these elasticities is constrained by deficiencies in the data sets, particularly a lack of variation in the aggregate data series for inputs, ie capital and labour.

• OECD, Growth and Measurement: Philpott Revisited. The 2002 Conference of the NZ Assn of Economists had as its theme Raising NZ in the OECD Growth Tables. This paper reviews B. P. Philpott's work in this area and compares it with later work by Diewert and Lawrence (1999). Philpott put massive investment into growth statistics and used simple Solow-type models for his analytical work. This paper shows that his results were affected by deficiencies in the data base but nevertheless compare quite well with later more sophisticated models using chain linked series developed by Diewert and Lawrence. The paper includes a discussion of the role of new investment and of Research and Development in explaining the residual on a sectoral basis.

• Recent Trends in Dairy Farm Productivity. Paper presented at Annual Conference of the NZ Agricultural and Resource Economics Society 2002 with Ann Anderson. This paper uses Tornqvist index numbers to estimate total farm productivity trends in NZ for the period 1991-2001. The sample is divided into owner operator farms and 50/50 sharefarmers (the value of milk sales is divided equally between the land owner and the herd owner). The early 1990s were a period of rebuilding in the industry and real inputs exceeded real outputs. Since 1996 the reverse has been true and total productivity has increased by 3-4% per year.

• 'Productivity in the Sheep Sector (2004d)' This paper, delivered at the annual conference of the NZ Agricultural Economics Society in July 2004, concerns real productivity trends in the sheep and beef production sector in NZ. The analysis employs Divisia weighted index numbers to estimate trends over the period 1987-2003 for total production, total real inputs and total input productivity. The data is drawn from the field survey of sheep and beef farms conducted by the Economic Serive of Meat and Wool Innovation (MWI) organisation - a public good quango in NZ. Results indicate fluctuations in productivity increase - when investment is on the rise, productivity temporarily falls and then recovers, as the effects are realised.

• 'Making the ANZSIC work for Economics' This paper, delivered to the NZ Association of Economists in June 2004, is concerned with the recently adopted industrial classification system introduced in NZ in 2000. The system is coordinated with Australia and is called the Australian New Zealand Standard Industry Classification (ANZSIC). It applies to all GDP, GCF, and capital stock estimates and is being introduced for industry employment statistics. The present paper describes the new classification and discusses how well it melds with previous estimates of the above macroeconomic statistics produced by Statistics New Zealand. The paper gives sources for consistent industry series for GDP, GCF and stocks for the period 1972-2003.